60% Chance of Recession According to JP Morgan Analysts
According to our good friend Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou and his team over at J.P. Morgan Securities, history paints a picture. By looking at the past 11 recessions, they observe that the S&P 500 declined an average of 26%.
Currently the S&P 500 sits at about a 16% decline since its peak. Panigirtzoglou and his team are using this as a way to gauge the probability of another recession. Since 16 is 60% of 26, they estimate a 60% of another recession within the next year. Read the article below and let us know if you agree with this correlation.
